Every February 2nd, thousands of people gather in small towns across America to watch rodents predict the weather. It’s a bit absurd, but I admit to tuning into the news to learn Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction about six more weeks of winter, or an early spring. I am curious, but the truth is that Phil doesn’t have a terrific accuracy record. Studies show that he’s accurate only about 39-40% of the time when measured against actual weather patterns.
Did you know that other famous prognosticators exist and that Phil has some competition? There’s Staten Island Chuck, who has developed a reputation as Phil’s more accurate rival. Staten Island Zoo officials claim Chuck maintains an accuracy rate of around 80%, though independent meteorological analyses suggest it’s closer to 50-50—essentially a coin flip. Chuck gained notoriety in 2009 when he bit Mayor Michael Bloomberg during the ceremony, and in 2014 when Mayor Bill de Blasio accidentally dropped Chuck, who died a week later.
Another contender is General Beauregard Lee of Georgia. The General, who lives in a climate-controlled home at the Yellow River Game Ranch, has his own claims to fame. His handlers assert the General’s accuracy rate is around 60%, though again, meteorologists remain skeptical.
So who’s the most accurate prognosticator? Honestly, it doesn’t matter. They’re all equally terrible at predicting the weather. And yet we keep watching, and I wonder why. I suggest our fascination with these animals reveals something about human nature. We long to know what comes next. We are creatures who wonder, worry, hope, and plan. We want reassurance that the future will be kind—or at least predictable.
We desire to know the future, but we cannot know it!
The underlying concern is this – when people seek certainty about the future apart from God, they often do so to gain control. Knowing what will happen tomorrow feels like power. It promises relief from fear and vulnerability. Scripture pushes back, reminding us that the future ultimately belongs to God alone.
James 4:13–15 addresses this directly:
“You who say, ‘Today or tomorrow we will go to this or that city…’ Why, you do not even know what will happen tomorrow… Instead, you ought to say, ‘If it is the Lord’s will, we will live and do this or that.’”
The problem is not planning—it is presumption.
Proverbs 27:1 offers a stark reminder: “Do not boast about tomorrow, for you do not know what a day may bring.” There’s humility built into this acknowledgment of our limitations. We cannot know the future, whether through groundhog shadows or sophisticated meteorological models (which, admittedly, work much better than rodents).
Ecclesiastes 11:4 offers, “Whoever watches the wind will not plant; whoever looks at the clouds will not reap.” If we wait for perfect conditions, perfect knowledge, perfect predictions, we’ll never act. Life requires moving forward despite uncertainty.
The groundhogs remind us annually that we don’t know what’s coming. Winter might last six more weeks or spring might come early, but either way, the seasons will turn. Our job isn’t to predict or control them, but to live faithfully through them.
Scripture does not promise us a roadmap of the future. Scripture points us away from prediction and toward trust. Jesus teaches his followers not to be consumed with worry about tomorrow, pointing to birds and flowers as examples of provision without anxiety (Matthew 6:25–34). Notably, these animals do not forecast. They live. Instead of asking, “What will happen?” the biblical question becomes, “How should I live today?”
And remember, the shadow you’re really looking for isn’t cast by a groundhog, but by the One who numbers our days and holds the seasons in His hands.